After Saudi Arabia`s success to push back the UAE and its aligned groups from southern Yemen in the past few weeks, the kingdom`s motivation to revive strategies it started last decade is gaining pace. In this path, the Saudis are pushing to leverage the once UAE-allied southern tribes to tip the field balance to its advantage.

In a report, Shafaghna news reported that Saudi Arabia these days is trying to unite the rebel militias and southern tribes and at the same, through injection of funds, prop up this weakened country.

Saudi Arabia has reportedly allocated approximately $3 billion in this year`s budget to cover the salaries of Yemeni forces and employees of its allied government. $1 billion of this amount is designated for southern forces previously funded by the UAE.

In this regard, Yemen`s Saudi-aligned Information Minister, Moammar Al-Eryani, stated: "Saudi Arabia has cooperated with us and expressed its readiness to pay all salaries in full. This support enables Yemen to reorganize and bring armed groups under its control."

The Kingdom had previously paid allied fighters of its backed government and recently began financing tens of thousands of government employees and thousands of troops from the Southern Transitional Council (STC), the same group that attacked Riyadh-backed forces in December and was formerly paid by Abu Dhabi.

Furthermore, Saudi Arabia recently earmarked a development package worth around $500 million for southern Yemeni regions, covering infrastructure, development projects, and aid to vital sectors across 10 provinces.

Reports indicate Saudi Arabia`s total spending on Yemen, covering salaries, development projects, and energy sector support, may exceed $4 billion this year alone.

These Saudi moves come as a fragile ceasefire, established after the Ansarullah movement`s 2022 attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, remains in place. However, Riyadh`s recent interventions in Yemen have brought the country to the brink of new developments that could trigger another round of conflict.

While Saudi Arabia`s finances are under strain and falling oil prices have slowed major projects, Riyadh cannot afford to ignore security risks along its southern border. Instability in Yemen, a country sharing a 1,800-kilometer border with Saudi Arabia, could jeopardize plans to attract tourists and foreign investment.

Forming allied front against Ansarullah

Over the past decade, the Saudis spent billions on military campaign in Yemen. Now they are trying to draw advantages to themselves from a crisis they caused.

The Arab kingdom is actively trying to unite under a unified military structure the anti-Ansarallah factions who are collapsing as the Emirates halts aids to them. Through uniting the command, Riyadh tries to gain a stronger position in the future negotiations and press Ansarullah for an agreement by end of 2026. To this end, it uses carrot and stick approach, according to Shafaghna.

Saudi Arabia`s financial assistance and military support for southern Yemeni groups aim to secure the loyalty of local populations and officials, preventing a decline in their allegiance to Riyadh-backed governments. By ensuring regular salary payments, these Saudi-supported authorities can maintain relative stability and bolster their resistance against political and military pressure from Ansarullah.

Accordingly, empowering southern separatist groups opposed to the Ansarullah has become a central part of Riyadh`s strategy to control the broader situation in Yemen. By strengthening the military and logistical capabilities of the STC, Saudi Arabia can tighten its grip on strategic areas in southern Yemen while safeguarding its vital maritime and oil routes.

Some analysts suggest that Riyadh has even dangled the prospect of an independent southern state, potentially determined through a future referendum, to southern separatists, provided they first unite to defeat Ansarullah, which had been holding the north following 2014 revolution that ousted Saudi Arabia`s puppet Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Despite Riyadh`s ambitious timeline, experts warn of major obstacles: deep internal divisions over southern independence, the persistence of a war economy in which militia pay far exceeds civilian wages, and the rise of an entire generation shaped by militarization, factors that still make a peaceful transition a distant prospect.

Retesting a failed path

Saudi Arabia`s ongoing push against Ansarullah comes as over the past 11 years have shown that any move to defeat this resistance movement is doomed to failure, since over the past years, Ansarullah has not only weakened, but also with reliance on war experiences, development of its missile and drone capabilities, and social cohesion in areas it holds had transformed into a powerful and determining factor in Yemen`s equations and even the broader region.

Such a level of deterrence is so high that even military interventions by the US and Israeli regime have failed to bring Ansarullah to its knees, let alone Saudi Arabia that has already sustained heavy defeats from Sana`a.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia`s pressure tools, including its reliance on STC in Yemen and affiliated or mercenary local forces, lack the cohesion and capacity needed to shift the balance of power. Rather than a cohesive national force, the STC is a dependent actor deeply influenced by Yemen`s internal fractures, and profound divisions among southern groups have undermined the possibility of forming a united front against Ansarullah.

Experience from recent years has shown that these forces are neither capable of sustained advances nor able to withstand the operational resilience of Yemeni resistance on the ground.

Under such conditions, Riyadh`s continuation of belligerent policies will not only yield no gains for the kingdom but could also lead to far costlier consequences. As Ansarullah leaders have warned, if hostilities resume, all Saudi infrastructure will be considered legitimate targets for Yemeni forces.

So, any escalation or a return to military options could shift regional security dynamics to Saudi Arabia`s detriment, posing serious challenges to the kingdom`s internal stability and economic security.

On the other hand, continuation of this approach can bring about dangerous consequences beyond Yemen battleground. Further instability in the south will spread insecurity to coastal regions and critical crossings in the Red Sea, a region prominent for its being one of the most vital trade and energy flow routes. Therefore, any new escalation can compromise shipping security and broaden domain of crisis to region and international levels.