FILE PHOTO: Pedestrians wearing protective masks make their way during commuting hour at a business district in Tokyo, Japan, January 7, 2021. © Reuters / Kim Kyung-Hoon

Global economic output will surpass $100 trillion for the first time in history next year despite the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, a new report by a UK-based consultancy shows.

A year ago, we hoped that the economic effects of the pandemic would wear off relatively quickly. And in one sense they have. We now expect world GDP in dollars in 2022 to be higher than we did pre-pandemic and to reach over $100 trillion for the first time in that year. Last year our forecast was that this would only be reached in 2024, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said in its annual World Economic League Table 2022, published on Sunday. The research gathers economic forecasts for 191 countries up to 2036.

Analysts say that despite the year-end emergence of the Omicron variant of Covid-19, much improved immunity in many countries allows for less harsh restrictions, whilst greater economic adaptability means that renewed restrictions cause less of a blow than previously.

CEBR says inflation will be the number one issue to deal with in the coming years.

The important issue for the 2020s is how the world economies cope with inflation, which has now reached 6.8% in the US, Deputy Chairman Douglas McWilliams said, as cited by Reuters.

According to the report, China is on track to overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy in dollar terms in 2030. India is forecast to pass France next year, while the UK might reclaim its place as the world’s sixth biggest economy in 2023. The report also says Germany could overtake Japan in terms of economic output around 2033. Russia is forecast to enter the top 10 by 2036.

CEBR analysts also warn of recession between 2023 and 2024.

We hope that a relatively modest adjustment to the tiller will bring the non-transitory elements under control. If not, then the world will need to brace itself for a recession in 2023 or 2024, the report states.